Home Office underestimated the number of migrants who would settle in Britain by 1.7 million

The EUSS gives foreign nationals the right to claim benefits and stay in the country indefinitely. Nearly 800,000 currently claim Universal Credit as a result.

Source: Impact Assessment for EU Settlement Scheme – Updated analysis (March 2019): https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukia/2019/74/pdfs/ukia_20190074_en.pdf

A 2019 Impact Assessment by the Home Office shows the department assumed that between 3.5million and 4.1million individuals would settle in Britain under the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS).

The latest data, from March 2025, shows that there have actually been 5.8 million individuals who have now obtained settled status, or pre-settled status under the EUSS.

The Home Office underestimated the number of people who would acquire status under the EUSS by 1.7 million.

The scheme gives EEA nationals, and their family members, who were living in Britain by the end of the transition period in December 2020, the right to claim benefits and live in the country indefinitely.

The latest DWP data shows that in June 2025, there were 764,429 individuals claiming Universal Credit who had been allowed to do so because of the EUSS.

Over half of these, 403,000, were not in employment.

Unbelievably, nearly 74,731 (both in employment and out of employment), were non-EEA nationals. It is curious that a EUROPEAN settlement scheme has allowed for so many non-Europeans to access Britain’s welfare system.

The EUSS was foisted upon Britain by the European Union, and the weakness of Theresa May meant that we capitulated.

Article 23(1) of the Withdrawal Agreement stipulates that “all Union citizens or United Kingdom nationals residing on the basis of this Agreement in the territory of the host State shall enjoy equal treatment with the nationals of that State”.

Despite immigration having been a key part of the Brexit campaign, and in particular the right of EU nationals to claim British benefits being a huge concern with the public, the Tory government never considered the option of denying this access.

The Home Office believed that not creating a route for settlement would be incompatible with the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May and thus the “option was not considered a viable option”.

How many migrants did the Home Office think would settle?

A key part of the 2019 Impact Assessment is estimating the number of “expected applications” that would arise under the EUSS scheme.

The Home Office estimated that the number of people able to apply directly for settled status (having been in the country for 5 or more years) would be 2.7million.

A further 0.9 million to 1.4 million, who had not yet been in the country for 5 years, would first have to apply for pre-settled status. This would allow them to remain in the country exempt from immigration controls, and put them on a pathway to settled status which they could obtain after 5 years residency.

In total, the Home Office’s internal analysis suggested that there would be 3.5 million and 4.1 million eligible individuals by the end of the transition period in December 2020.

Impact Assessment, page 6: “Home Office internal analysis estimates that the total number of EEA citizens and their family members eligible to apply for the EU Settlement Scheme by the end of the planned implementation period on 31 December 2020 is likely to be between 3.5 million and 4.1 million.”

Impact Assessment, page 16: “Home Office internal analysis estimates that, of the estimated 3.5 million – 4.1 million total eligible applicants for the EU Settlement Scheme, between 0.9 million and 1.4 million applicants may make a follow-up application in order to obtain settled status (indefinite leave to remain, ILR) under the scheme, having initially been granted pre-settled status”.

Whilst the Home Office was at pains to make clear that these figures were “indicative” and “should not… be considered as minimum and maximum estimates”, these were nonetheless the figures around which the scheme was devised.

And how many actually settled?

Using data from June 2025, there have been 4.3 million people awarded settled status under the EUSS. A further 1.5 million currently hold pre-settled status, and are on a pathway to settled status.

This means there are 5.8 million EEA nationals and their family members who have obtained settled status.

The figure is 1.7 million higher than the Home Office forecast in its Impact Assessment.

Of course, at the outset a scheme as large as the EUSS will be unable to precisely pinpoint the number of applications that it will receive. However, to be wide of the mark by 1.7 million is far from a simple rounding error or administrative mistake.

5.8 million people granted status is 41% higher than the Home Office’s upper estimate of 4.1 million, and 49% higher than the Home Office’s lower estimate of 3.5 million.

A backdoor for non-European migration

Impact Assessment, page 15: The Home Office also forecast that between 170,000 and 230,000 non-EEA family members would be eligible for the scheme.

June 2025 figures show there are 193,660 non-EEA nationals with pre-settled status, and 244,709 who hold settled status. The total number of non-EEA nationals, therefore, who hold status under the EUSS is 438,369, which is 208,000 more than forecast by the Home Office.

Where have people come from?

EU14: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden. The founding members of the EU, and those who were members prior to 2004.

Just 1.538m (36%) of those holding settled status came from the EU-14

EU8: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia. Those who joined the EU in 2004.

There are 1.574m people from the EU8 who hold settled status, 37% of the total figure.

EU2+Other: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Malta, Romania

A total of 824,000 (19.5%) come from these countries

EEA and Switzerland: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland. Total = 34,898 (<1%)

Non-European (top 15):

How much has the scheme cost Britain?

Unlike Indefinite Leave to Remain, individuals were not charged to apply to the scheme, so no revenue was generated.

The Impact Assessment estimated that the scheme would cost at least £410 million in resource costs and £90m in capital cost over its lifetime (£655m in 2025 prices). This figure could potentially have risen to as high as £610m (£800m in 2025 prices).