Third of UK population to be first or second-gen migrant by 2035

In just ten year's time a third of the UK's population will be a first or second-generation migrant.

Topline

High migrant birth-rates and record levels of immigration means that the population of first and second-generation migrants in the UK will hit over 24m by 2035 (32.4% of the total population).

The total number of first-generation migrants will be 18,318,530 (24.3% of the total population).

A further 6,105,231 (8.1%) people in the country will be second-generation migrants (SGM) born after 1997. This figure does not include those second-generation migrants born before that date.

Earlier this year the ONS released projection that show a declining birth rate will drive 100% of the country’s population growth over the next ten years. Their median forecast suggested the population of the UK would surge by 5m by 2032.

CMC analysis of ONS, released today, shows the change in the profile of the UK that will take place as a result of these forecasts.

UK population start of 2023

· Total population: 67,603,000

· Foreign-born population: 11,439,000

· British population (including second-generation migrants): 56,164,000

There were 4,464,00 second gen migrants born from 1997 up to 2022. With deaths across this period equalling 440,837, an emigration rate across this period of 15%, the total number of SGM included within the British population in 2023 was 3,420,000.

Total population: 67,603,000

· Foreign-born population: 11,439,000

· British population: 52,744,000

· Post-97 second generation-migrant population: 3,420,000.

· Total migrant population: 14,859,000

Foreign born population = 16.9% of population.
Second generation-migrant population = 5%
Total migrant population = 22%

UK population at end of 2035

Total population at end of year (row 20): 75,365,000

· British population: 50,941,970 (67.59%)

· Foreign-born population: 18,222,000 (24.1%)

· Total second-gen migrant population: 6,105,231 (8.1%)

· Total migrant population: 24,327,231 (32.2%)

Research Director of CMC, Robert Bates said:

“The strain being placed on our public services by mass migration is extraordinary. A surging population inevitably means that people’s quality of life will be diminished. We must recognise that the social and cultural costs for Britain are just as great. This analysis shows that Britain in 2035 will be a very divided place.

Assimilation into the British way of life becomes impossible when migration accounts for such a large proportion of the population. In most cases, first and second-generation migrants will retain the culture and norms of their home country, with adherence to certain aspects of British civic life falling by the wayside as a result. The British public never consented to have the country transformed in this way. In 2029 we have one last chance to reverse the tide.

CMC Methodology

Findings

Immigration 2023 - 2035

The ONS central forecasts repeatedly understate the true level of immigration into Britain. For example, in 2022 it estimated that net migration was 606,000, but eventually revised this upward to 872,000. In 2023, it estimated that net immigration was 740,000 but revised this upwards to 906,000.

The CMC has therefore chosen to use the higher immigration forecast for the ONS population projection through to 2035. Even in this scenario, the ONS assumes that net migration will still run at 525,000 – a figure that would only be reached with considerable reform to visa rules.

ONS inward migration (high migration variant)

(000s)

Breakdown of those arriving

Between 2019 and 2024, British nationals returning to the country accounted for an average of 7.68% of inward migration. This peaked during Covid, with the figure reaching roughly 10% but has since fallen to between 5 and 7%. The CMC has conducted the following forecast using the figure of 7.68%, with the remaining 92.32% of inward migration coming from the rest of the world.

This means that, between 2023 and 2035, the composition of inward migration was as follows:

Total inward migration over timeframe

Brits: 1,027,000
Migrants: 12,340,000
Total: 13,367,000

Emigration

Breakdown of those leaving

Between 2019 and 2024, British nationals emigrating accounted for an average of 22.28% of all those leaving the country. The remainder account for migrants who are assumed to have left at the end of their visas (work, study, seasonal worker, dependant, humanitarian) or individuals born in the UK without British citizenship.

Assuming the composition remains the same (although many Brits are of course now leaving the country as the result of unfavourable tax and lifestyle conditions), this would mean that the breakdown of those leaving over the forecast period is as follows:

Total outward migration over timeframe

Brits: 1,260,000
Migrants: 4,394,000
Total: 5,654,000

Births

ONS figures for 2023 on parents’ country of birth show that:

- 24.7% of all births in England and Wales were to parents who were both non-UK born.

- A further 12.6% were to parents where at least one was non-UK born

- Meaning in total, 37.3% of all births were of children fitting the definition “second generation migrant”.

This percentage is likely to significantly increase over the forecast period owing to foreign-born individuals making up an ever-increasing proportion of the population. However, it allows us to provide a conservative estimate of the number of second-generation migrants being born over the timeframe.

Between 2023 and 2055, therefore, the total number of second-generation migrants being born in Britain, and the number of Brits being born, was as follows:

Second-gen migrants: 3,375,000
British: 5,673,000
Total: 9,047,000

3,375,000 second-generation migrants (SGM) born in UK.

Deaths

Current death rates

Total deaths 2021-23 (England & Wales): 1,306,848.
Foreign-born deaths: 138,235 (10.58% all deaths)
British-born deaths: 1,168,583 (89.42% all deaths)

Death projections by country of birth

CMC assumed migrant share of deaths:

2023-2026: 10.58%,
2027-2030: 12.5%
2030-2035: 15%

Total deaths over timeframe

Brits: 7,835,000
Migrants: 1,163,000
Total: 8,999,000

Existing second-generation migrants in population

Second generation migrants are defined by the UK government as “people with at least one parent born abroad”.

There is no current figure that establishes the number of second-generation migrants living in the country.

Second generation births 1997 – 2022

We attempt to identify the number of second-generation migrants already present in the UK, and who are therefore already accounted for in the overall population figure.

There will, of course, be hundreds of thousands of second-generation migrants living in the country who were born before 1997. However, data availability means that we are only able to confidently calculate the number born in the UK from 1997. This will be done using two datasets. The first, from 1997 – 2007, is census data produced by the ONS. The second, standalone ONS data runs from 2008 to 2022.

1997 – 2007: ONS ‘Birth statistics: Births and patterns of family building England and Wales’

In 1997 there were 643,095 live births in England and Wales. 84,497 of these births (13.1%) were to mothers born outside the UK. We will apply then 13.1% rate to the next three years, for which data does not exist.

1998: 635,548 births of which 83,257 second-gen births
1999: 621,578 births of which 81,427 second-gen births
2000: 604,132 births of which 79,141 second-gen births

For the next we have actual figures for the total number of children born to foreign-born mothers:

The total number of second-generation migrants born during this timeframe was: 1,128,539 (Note: this figure is only of births where the mother is foreign-born. The country of birth for the father was not available in this dataset, meaning the actual number is likely higher)

2008 – 2022: ONS ‘Parents’ country of birth’

The ONS data-series “Parents’ country of birth” provides us with the number of second-generation births between 2008 and 2022.

During 2008 and 2022, there were a total of 3,335,511 children in the UK born to parents where either the mother, the father, or both were migrants.

Combining this figure with the 1.12m, set out above, reveals that, between 1997 and 2022, there were 4,464,050 second-generation migrants born in Britain. Removing the 440,837 (as per UK death rates per age) means the population becomes 4,023,213.

Assuming that, between 1997 and 2022, there is an emigration rate 15% (see below) 603,482 will have left the country and thus the population at the start of the projection period is: 3,419,731

FORECAST PERIOD: Second generation births during forecast period (2023-2035)

As set out above, the ONS forecasts suggest there will be 3,375,000 SGM births during the timeframe. There will be around 50,000 deaths, taking the population to 3,325,000. With an emigration attrition rate of 9.7% (see below), which removes a further 322,500, the population by the end of the forecast period will be 3,002,500.

The 3,419,731 SGM (1997 – 2022) will also experience continued attrition through deaths (roughly, 117,000 – taking the population to 3,302,731), and then via a further 6% of emigration (roughly 200,000). This takes the population to 3,102,731.

Combining these two figures 6,105,231 second generation migrants by 2035.

Of the 167,000 deaths across this period 23,380 will have been classed as foreign nationals, and 143,620 were classed as British citizens.

Of the 522,500 emigrating, 73,150 will have been classed as foreign nationals, and 449,350 classed as British citizens.

In topline emigration and death figures (which use nationality not country of birth), these figures need to be reapportioned from the relevant British/migrant variables and into the SGM categories.

Calculating second generation attrition

Whether a child born in the UK automatically receives British citizenship depends on a) whether one or both of their migrant parents are now classed as a British citizen, b) if this is not the case, whether either of the migrant parents have settled status.

Point a) gives us a rough framework for deciphering the number of second-gen migrants who will likely obtain British citizenship automatically. Between 2008 and 2022, an average of 61% of all SGM births were to two-parents who were not born in the UK. This has risen from 55% to 66% between these years.

This is a starting point, as we can deduce roughly 39% of all SGMs automatically qualify for British citizenship – as at least one of their parents was British. However, this is only a rudimental lower estimate, as children of migrants with ILR, and those SGM who have lived in the UK for a certain period will also obtain citizenship.

Further clues are offered by analysis conducted by the Migration Observatory, which found that in 2019 there were 421,000 children (aged 17 or under) living in the United Kingdom who did not have British citizenship. Between 2003 and 2019 (those aged 17 and under), there were 3,372,679 SGM births – yet Migration Observatory records that the total number of SGM children was 3,043,000. This suggests an attrition of 329,679 (9.7%). We shall therefore use this figure as our assumed emigration rate (across a 17-year timeframe) to ascertain the total SGM population attrition.

Secondly, it also reveals the split of SGM in terms of the nationality they ultimately end up possessing. 421,000 SGM not possessing British citizenship, out of 3.04m born during the timeframe, means that only 14% of SGM children do not having British citizenship. A small number, and indicative of the huge number of people granted settled status or British citizenship in recent years.