In 2024 between 40% and 47% of those charged for sexual offences were foreign nationals - despite them accounting for just a quarter of the capital's population.
Do tell: What would the numbers look like if there were an institutional bias that led to over-prosecution of foreign nationals and under-prosecution of British nationals?
What would they look like if British accusees had a cultural capital advantage (linguistic fluency, knowledge of law, access to representation, personal contacts)?
What would they look like if we took into account the fact that in 2024 only 2.7% of rape cases resulted in a charge the same year? Would the other 97.3% change the outcome?
University researcher here, I have taken the time to analyse the data provided by the freedom of information request and in realty the top 5 nationalities are:
Nationality Number = % of 7798
British 4629 = 59.4%
Romanian 308 = 3.9%
Indian 193 = 2.5%
Polish 128 = 1.60%
Italian 113 = 1.4%
It is very dangerous to manipulate data - from observation you are targeting non-white individuals which has very serious racist undertones.
Surprise surprise, a pressure group set up to find bad news stories about foreigners, funded by people and institutions representing wealth, found bad news stories about foreigners.
They know people are not going to vote for austerity, cuts to public services and tax cuts for the rich, unless they are served up with a big helping of immigrant bashing.
You couldn't be more deluded. The real number of foreifn crime is much higher because the amount of cases taken on by prosecution has to be nailed on guilty, for the most part. Considering that the capital is majority foreign where abouts is your numerical leg to stand on you big dolt?
Can you please explain why in your calculation spread sheet you have 0 offences under British for 2018, 2019 & 2020 as well as very low numbers for 2021 & 2022? It appears that you have missed included the data from the Met Police report under "United Kingdom" for those years. This is giving an artificially low value of offences per 10,000 population for British people.
Also can you please explain where you got the population of the various ethnicity's within London as none of the data sets linked for population contain a value of 12,000 Afghans living in London so trying to work out which sheet you got that from.
I have a few questions after reviewing this data which has dominated headlines but is clearly misleading.
1) How have you estimated the populations of each ethnicity? Your estimate for Afghan immigrants, for example, is about 3x LOWER than the current estimated population. I would like to know how you measured this total for each ethnicity?
2) The current migrant population of London is estimated to be 40% (according to the 2021 census). Why does your article suggest it is 25%?
3) How have you adjusted the offences for repeat offenders being counted multiple times?
4) How have you adjusted the numbers for increases in population?
It’s accurate that convictions among Indian nationals rose sharply—but that alone doesn’t prove a broader moral or cultural claim. Foreign nationals account for around 14% of UK sexual offence convictions, and while per-capita rates are higher for some groups, the numbers are based on shaky population estimates. Data points toward systemic trends—not sweeping indictments of entire communities.
Can you clarify how you arrived at the population numbers? I checked your sources but couldn’t find anything matching your data. For instance, you list Sudanese population in the UK as 7,000, but the only place I found that figure was as the margin of error for “Female Sudanese by country of birth.
I urge everyone to look at the raw data provided by the information of information request and see the true numbers - also please note that there are 4 separate categories for British, United Kingdom, Scottish and Northern Irish which should have all be under the same category
Can you please explain why in your calculation spread sheet you have 0 offences under British for 2018, 2019 & 2020 as well as very low numbers for 2021 & 2022? It appears that you have missed included the data from the Met Police report under "United Kingdom" for those years. This is giving an artificially low value of offences per 10,000 population for British people.
Also can you please explain where you got the population of the various ethnicity's within London as none of the data sets linked for population contain a value of 12,000 Afghans living in London so trying to work out which sheet you got that from.
Row 152 shows combined total of "United Kingdom", "British", and "England" for the years 2018 - 2024 as well as the grand total. These are the figures on which the per capita rate is calculated.
The population data comes from the Annual Population Survey and assumes the upper end of the ONS' estimates. Thanks for your questions!
That is not the upper end. You took the margin of error alone. You're supposed to add the "Persons Estimate" to the margin of error to get to the upper end. High school statistics. Embarrassing!
Must be tiring faking wit with nothing but sarcasm and self-delusion
People like you belong in the chaos you defend- MILES from the posh safety nets you secretly cling to. Maybe then you’d quit the virtue signalling and face the mess you help create with your blind support for unchecked immigration. Bet you can’t even admit different ethnicities have different crime rates- brainless slag lmaoo
In which case I will, I do agree that different ethnicities have different rates of crime and incarceration, but I believe it's due to opportunities and perception by others, of course those who live in worse conditions have higher crime rates, and those of racial minorities are pushed to such areas, perhaps the problem is in fact the disparity between these groups which could be resolved via conversation and community as opposed to division. As said by another commenter, perhaps there are some who are seeking to distract and divide us, make us turn a blind eye to these inequalities that lead to these outcomes. I am indeed privileged, I have a safe place to live, employment, but such conditions don't give me such ignorance and hatred that you seem to have. My witticism, however much you seem it "false" is more from the fact I find discussing with such angry and ignorant people, rather funny, I think the term the younger kids use is ragebaiting, no one's easier to "ragebait" than a racist.
also it’s funny how you admit your privilege, then laugh at the people actually living with the fallout. Must be easy to “ragebait” when none of it touches your squeaky clean life. Nothing at stake for this old slag, just smug takes and zero consequences. Why would you worry? You’ve got nothing to lose
Ouuu so you admit different groups commit more crime.. but instead of dealing with the consequences or being honest about root causes, you default to blaming “inequality” and pretend conversation will fix it. That’s exactly the kind of moral luxury you get when you don’t live with the fallout.
BTW this whole “socioeconomic disadvantage” excuse is overused and tired. Ending the cycle of bad behaviour in some communities would take strict parenting and massive systemic efforts to sustain cultural change across multiple generations - which we bear ZERO responsibility for.
Not all minorities are the same, either. I’d have no issue with East Asians- many come from countries affected by Western interference too, yet you don’t see them making excuses or resorting to crime. There’s no way you don’t see these excuses as nauseating, they’re utterly insulting to others who’ve worked hard despite their upbringing.
Let’s be real, your compassion is cowardice dressed up as virtue. People like you parade your saviour complex while ignoring the fact that your idealism puts actual communities, including minorities, at risk. Not even all minorities benefit from “diversity.” That’s how laughable this moral theatre is.
You’re right about division, except it’s being driven by the very elite pushing mass immigration and weaponised diversity while silencing, deplatforming, or outright prosecuting anyone who points out the damage they never have to live with. You do realize in the UK being anti-immigration is anti-establishment right? Anyway, moving on
Is your idea of progress just watching others pay the price for your principles, as long as it’s not you? At what point does wilful blindness stop being virtue and start being betrayal?
What’s happening is a fucking tragedy and it’s only going to get worse. There’s fear and rightly so, because people’s futures are on the line. Imagine raising a son or daughter in your home country where insecurity grows with every year and nothing is being done to stop it. What’s supposed to change under a government that… refuses to even acknowledge the problem?
You've been convinced by the rich to hate your fellow man. The data given is for people CHARGED, they haven't been convicted of any crime. Time and time again audits have found that the police in the UK falsely charge foreign nationals at a higher rate, yet news funded by billionaires spit out hundreds of articles using data that doesn't prove anything to deliberate mislead people like you and make you hate your neighbour so they can extract even more money from your wallet. Find who stands to gain the most from articles like this and you'll find that it isn't you or me it's the rich who continue to get even richer while we squabble over percentages that don't even mean what we think they do.
The rich aren’t tricking people into hating “your fellow man”. THEY’RE the ones welcoming mass immigration and diversity because it keeps wages low, rents high, and the working class divided to exercise control. That’s the plan. Cheap labour, social instability, and virtue-signalling cover stories all wrapped in a moral bow to keep people like you defending border policies that screw you over.
And spare me the “charged” line, conviction data tells the same story. You can audit it all you like; reality doesn’t bend to feelings. Different groups commit crimes at different rates, pretending otherwise doesn’t help anyone. The UK establishment elite literally thrive on your pathetic denial.
Black people as one example (it’s not just Blacks, but browns too) comprise roughly 4% of the UK population, yet account for 12% of the prison population as of March 2024 (Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2024)
The liberal rich and mass immigration are two sides of the same coin.
The other 53% were naturalised.
Exactly
Oh dear, I see the liberal far left racist extremists are out in force on this.
They just can't bear the truth!
They treat the truth like an illness.
Do tell: What would the numbers look like if there were an institutional bias that led to over-prosecution of foreign nationals and under-prosecution of British nationals?
What would they look like if British accusees had a cultural capital advantage (linguistic fluency, knowledge of law, access to representation, personal contacts)?
What would they look like if we took into account the fact that in 2024 only 2.7% of rape cases resulted in a charge the same year? Would the other 97.3% change the outcome?
There isnt enough native British in London for this to be true.
University researcher here, I have taken the time to analyse the data provided by the freedom of information request and in realty the top 5 nationalities are:
Nationality Number = % of 7798
British 4629 = 59.4%
Romanian 308 = 3.9%
Indian 193 = 2.5%
Polish 128 = 1.60%
Italian 113 = 1.4%
It is very dangerous to manipulate data - from observation you are targeting non-white individuals which has very serious racist undertones.
per capita.
You are only using per capita to fuel your agenda - your analysis is not the true picture, you are fulled by racist hatred.
Per capita is per capita you ignoramus.
You must be a Leftie imbecile.
Are 77th trialling AI trolls? You cannot be for real. This is appalling bad
Surprise surprise, a pressure group set up to find bad news stories about foreigners, funded by people and institutions representing wealth, found bad news stories about foreigners.
They know people are not going to vote for austerity, cuts to public services and tax cuts for the rich, unless they are served up with a big helping of immigrant bashing.
You couldn't be more deluded. The real number of foreifn crime is much higher because the amount of cases taken on by prosecution has to be nailed on guilty, for the most part. Considering that the capital is majority foreign where abouts is your numerical leg to stand on you big dolt?
Can you please explain why in your calculation spread sheet you have 0 offences under British for 2018, 2019 & 2020 as well as very low numbers for 2021 & 2022? It appears that you have missed included the data from the Met Police report under "United Kingdom" for those years. This is giving an artificially low value of offences per 10,000 population for British people.
Also can you please explain where you got the population of the various ethnicity's within London as none of the data sets linked for population contain a value of 12,000 Afghans living in London so trying to work out which sheet you got that from.
I have a few questions after reviewing this data which has dominated headlines but is clearly misleading.
1) How have you estimated the populations of each ethnicity? Your estimate for Afghan immigrants, for example, is about 3x LOWER than the current estimated population. I would like to know how you measured this total for each ethnicity?
2) The current migrant population of London is estimated to be 40% (according to the 2021 census). Why does your article suggest it is 25%?
3) How have you adjusted the offences for repeat offenders being counted multiple times?
4) How have you adjusted the numbers for increases in population?
I look forward to these answers.
It’s accurate that convictions among Indian nationals rose sharply—but that alone doesn’t prove a broader moral or cultural claim. Foreign nationals account for around 14% of UK sexual offence convictions, and while per-capita rates are higher for some groups, the numbers are based on shaky population estimates. Data points toward systemic trends—not sweeping indictments of entire communities.
How is “foreign national” defined in this claim?
Can you clarify how you arrived at the population numbers? I checked your sources but couldn’t find anything matching your data. For instance, you list Sudanese population in the UK as 7,000, but the only place I found that figure was as the margin of error for “Female Sudanese by country of birth.
Crazy how people call Indians bad but there are sooo hug Indian population compared to other races yet they're soo down in the list
Hi there - just subbed grateful if you would check out my latest post
https://substack.com/@beingandpolitics/note/p-170153790?r=j4dtk&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
I urge everyone to look at the raw data provided by the information of information request and see the true numbers - also please note that there are 4 separate categories for British, United Kingdom, Scottish and Northern Irish which should have all be under the same category
Can you please explain why in your calculation spread sheet you have 0 offences under British for 2018, 2019 & 2020 as well as very low numbers for 2021 & 2022? It appears that you have missed included the data from the Met Police report under "United Kingdom" for those years. This is giving an artificially low value of offences per 10,000 population for British people.
Also can you please explain where you got the population of the various ethnicity's within London as none of the data sets linked for population contain a value of 12,000 Afghans living in London so trying to work out which sheet you got that from.
Row 152 shows combined total of "United Kingdom", "British", and "England" for the years 2018 - 2024 as well as the grand total. These are the figures on which the per capita rate is calculated.
The population data comes from the Annual Population Survey and assumes the upper end of the ONS' estimates. Thanks for your questions!
That is not the upper end. You took the margin of error alone. You're supposed to add the "Persons Estimate" to the margin of error to get to the upper end. High school statistics. Embarrassing!
You seem like a lovely fellow to be around at parties
You should just move to Africa instead of bringing your friends here Eleanor. I'm sure you'll have a great time.
I'm middle class white 😭
I’d party with him everyday and I’m not even English. Go fuck yourself, morally grandstanding cunt.
Boo boo, anyone at that party will have to cover their drinks then x
Must be tiring faking wit with nothing but sarcasm and self-delusion
People like you belong in the chaos you defend- MILES from the posh safety nets you secretly cling to. Maybe then you’d quit the virtue signalling and face the mess you help create with your blind support for unchecked immigration. Bet you can’t even admit different ethnicities have different crime rates- brainless slag lmaoo
In which case I will, I do agree that different ethnicities have different rates of crime and incarceration, but I believe it's due to opportunities and perception by others, of course those who live in worse conditions have higher crime rates, and those of racial minorities are pushed to such areas, perhaps the problem is in fact the disparity between these groups which could be resolved via conversation and community as opposed to division. As said by another commenter, perhaps there are some who are seeking to distract and divide us, make us turn a blind eye to these inequalities that lead to these outcomes. I am indeed privileged, I have a safe place to live, employment, but such conditions don't give me such ignorance and hatred that you seem to have. My witticism, however much you seem it "false" is more from the fact I find discussing with such angry and ignorant people, rather funny, I think the term the younger kids use is ragebaiting, no one's easier to "ragebait" than a racist.
also it’s funny how you admit your privilege, then laugh at the people actually living with the fallout. Must be easy to “ragebait” when none of it touches your squeaky clean life. Nothing at stake for this old slag, just smug takes and zero consequences. Why would you worry? You’ve got nothing to lose
Ouuu so you admit different groups commit more crime.. but instead of dealing with the consequences or being honest about root causes, you default to blaming “inequality” and pretend conversation will fix it. That’s exactly the kind of moral luxury you get when you don’t live with the fallout.
BTW this whole “socioeconomic disadvantage” excuse is overused and tired. Ending the cycle of bad behaviour in some communities would take strict parenting and massive systemic efforts to sustain cultural change across multiple generations - which we bear ZERO responsibility for.
Not all minorities are the same, either. I’d have no issue with East Asians- many come from countries affected by Western interference too, yet you don’t see them making excuses or resorting to crime. There’s no way you don’t see these excuses as nauseating, they’re utterly insulting to others who’ve worked hard despite their upbringing.
Let’s be real, your compassion is cowardice dressed up as virtue. People like you parade your saviour complex while ignoring the fact that your idealism puts actual communities, including minorities, at risk. Not even all minorities benefit from “diversity.” That’s how laughable this moral theatre is.
You’re right about division, except it’s being driven by the very elite pushing mass immigration and weaponised diversity while silencing, deplatforming, or outright prosecuting anyone who points out the damage they never have to live with. You do realize in the UK being anti-immigration is anti-establishment right? Anyway, moving on
Is your idea of progress just watching others pay the price for your principles, as long as it’s not you? At what point does wilful blindness stop being virtue and start being betrayal?
What’s happening is a fucking tragedy and it’s only going to get worse. There’s fear and rightly so, because people’s futures are on the line. Imagine raising a son or daughter in your home country where insecurity grows with every year and nothing is being done to stop it. What’s supposed to change under a government that… refuses to even acknowledge the problem?
You've been convinced by the rich to hate your fellow man. The data given is for people CHARGED, they haven't been convicted of any crime. Time and time again audits have found that the police in the UK falsely charge foreign nationals at a higher rate, yet news funded by billionaires spit out hundreds of articles using data that doesn't prove anything to deliberate mislead people like you and make you hate your neighbour so they can extract even more money from your wallet. Find who stands to gain the most from articles like this and you'll find that it isn't you or me it's the rich who continue to get even richer while we squabble over percentages that don't even mean what we think they do.
You’ve got it completely backwards, Graham boy.
The rich aren’t tricking people into hating “your fellow man”. THEY’RE the ones welcoming mass immigration and diversity because it keeps wages low, rents high, and the working class divided to exercise control. That’s the plan. Cheap labour, social instability, and virtue-signalling cover stories all wrapped in a moral bow to keep people like you defending border policies that screw you over.
And spare me the “charged” line, conviction data tells the same story. You can audit it all you like; reality doesn’t bend to feelings. Different groups commit crimes at different rates, pretending otherwise doesn’t help anyone. The UK establishment elite literally thrive on your pathetic denial.
Black people as one example (it’s not just Blacks, but browns too) comprise roughly 4% of the UK population, yet account for 12% of the prison population as of March 2024 (Offender management statistics quarterly: January to March 2024)
The liberal rich and mass immigration are two sides of the same coin.